Pakistan v Zimbabwe: A statistician's dream

Pakistan's 2003 World Cup campaign has come to a challenging pass, which may seem virtually impossible. They need to beat Zimbabwe here at Queen's Sports Club in Bulawayo tomorrow, but just a win would not be enough. They must meet exceptionally stiff targets whether they bat first or second.

There are so many permutations that the match could be called a statistician's dream and the nightmare for any cricket fan, let alone Pakistan supporters.

On sheer ability, the target is not an unrealistic one for Pakistan, although one has to concede that it falls in the realm of a super-human effort. That is the optimistic view. The flip side is rather stark, and judging by Pakistan's performances so far, they would be catching a plane home next morning.

Zimbabwe is one of the weaker outfits in this World Cup, and the fact that the country and the team has suffered because of its political problems and resulting isolation, has had a bearing on the morale and unity of Heath Streak's team.

Pakistan did not do themselves justice against the much weaker Namibia and Netherlands. Had they scored 300-plus against these two minnows, which Zimbabwe did, their net run-rate would have been far superior to what it is now, and their present predicament much lighter.

But that is water under the bridge. Pakistan need to lift themselves, and each member of the eleven needs to play out of his skin. In three of five outings in their recent series in Zimbabwe, Pakistan scored well over 300. They need to repeat it.

Coach Richard Pybus has promised that the boys would go flat out, but it is difficult following the gut-wrenching defeat by India, after which a pall of gloom has descended over the team. But Pybus said: "They've pulled themselves up after that loss, and they're aware that they can still make it if they play flat out."

So Pakistan need one big final effort. Though the Australian batting must have given them quite a fright (the entire Pakistan team watched the Sunday match on television and there was visible relief at the outcome), the Aussies in the end gave them a lifeline with their narrow win over England.

Beggars cannot be choosers. When you leave your fate in the hands of others, you live at their mercy. And Pakistan must blame their pathetic bowling against India, and lack of application in other games, especially the less important ones against the two bottom-ranked outfits.

The Queen's Sports Club wicket is slow-paced, and if Pakistan win the toss, it would give an opportunity to their batsmen to go after the Zimbabwe attack, which only has a couple of good performers with the ball, captain Heath Streak among them.

Zimbabwe will be happy with the return from injury of all-rounder Grant Flower, who along with brother Andy is a world-class performer. Grant missed the game against Holland because of a finger injury, and neither opener Mark Vermeulen or all-rounder Doug Marillier would make up for him. Henry Olonga may still not find a place in the side, as his replacement Andy Blignaut has blasted runs in quick time.

As for Pakistan, Pybus has hinted at a couple of changes, but refused to divulge what these would be.

The toss will again be vital, but Pakistan has to make sure that if Waqar Younis loses on the spin of the coin, they still make a fist of it, with sharp and incisive bowling and then some big-hitting.

The task is difficult in the extreme, but Pakistan know what is required to achieve a slot in the Super Sixes. If they play up to their potential, with self-belief and a can-do spirit, their comeback may just be achievable. Take a look at the permutations below.

After the Australia v England result, the scenarios for Pakistan v Zimbabwe are:

- Australia finish 1st in Pool A on 24 points with India 2nd on 20 points.

- If Zimbabwe win against Pakistan they would finish 3rd on 16 points. If tied or no result, Zimbabwe will finish 3rd on 14 points.

- If Pakistan beat Zimbabwe there will be a 3-way tie between them, Zimbabwe and England on 12 points each. As Pakistan will have beaten Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe beaten England and England beaten Pakistan, each team will have one win in matches played head-to-head. The finishing positions will then be decided by net run-rate.

- As Zimbabwe will have lost to England in this scenario it is impossible for their net run-rate to surpass England's, and they will thus not qualify for the Super Six. For Pakistan to qualify for the Super Six they will need to ensure that their net run-rate is above England's.

- For them to achieve this the following example targets will apply:

Zimbabwe bat first: i) If Zimbabwe score 100, Pakistan will need to get the runs in 10.5 overs. ii) If Zimbabwe score 150, Pakistan will need to get the runs in 12.1 overs. iii) If Zimbabwe score 200, Pakistan will need to get the runs in 13.2 overs. iv) If Zimbabwe score 250, Pakistan will need to get the runs in 14.2 overs.

Pakistan bat first: i) If Pakistan score 200 they will need to dismiss Zimbabwe for 13 or less. ii) If Pakistan score 250 they will need to dismiss Zimbabwe for 62 or less. iii) If Pakistan score 300 they will need to dismiss Zimbabwe for 112 or less. iv) If Pakistan score 350 they will need to dismiss Zimbabwe for 161 or less.

Note: These targets are approximate in the event of Zimbabwe batting first, as they assume that Pakistan pass the target by 1 run. It is possible that they could get the winning runs with a six and thus pass the target by 6 runs. Thus it is possible that they may have an extra ball or two available if they do this.